Election latest: Countdown begins to polls opening (2024)

The exit poll is the first big moment of the night - the moment millions tune in for a first indication of the eventual result of the general election.

Commissioned by the broadcasters - Sky News, the BBC and ITV News - the fieldwork is carried out by Ipsos UK who will have interviewers at 133 polling stations around the country this year.

People who have just voted will be asked to privately fill in a replica ballot paper and place it into a ballot box as they leave their local community centre, church hall or station.

Researchers can only deploy to a fraction of the total constituencies in England, Scotland and Wales, so locations are chosen to best reflect the demographics of the country with an urban and rural spread.

However, many of the locations will be in marginal seats, where the swing between the main parties will be tracked.

The same polling stations are targeted year after year so the swing from the last election's exit poll, along with other data at constituency level, can be analysed by those crunching the numbers.

The data collected at the polling stations is sent back by interviewers to Ipsos UK at several stages throughout the day.

It's processed there and sent via a secure data pipeline to the broadcasters' statisticians and political scientists who are locked down in a secret location in the capital.

Electoral rules mean that no polling can be reported while people are voting - Sky News and the other broadcasters will cover it in full from 10pm.

Election coverage begins on Sky News from 9pm, and it is free, wherever you get your news.Here is how to watch and follow live.

After weeks of campaigning, polls are due to open very soon and voters across the nation will have their say.

Here are the key timings of the day:

7am Thursday: Polls will open across the United Kingdom.

9pm: Sky News’ Election Night Live programme starts (click here for details on how to watch).

10pm: Polls will close and counting will begin.

10pm: Broadcasters’ exit poll will be published, giving the first indication of the election.

Around 11.30pm: First seats will be declared.

Around 4.30am Friday: We will likely know for certain who will form the next government.

7am: Sophy Ridge and Sam Coates broadcast the fallout from the election live on Sky News.

By Tim Baker, political reporter

Blockbuster polling from YouGov is forecasting Labour to score the biggest electoral win since 1832 - read more on that here.

This was a significant date in the history of UK democracy.

The vote in 1832 came after the introduction of the Great Reform Act - the legislation that paved the way for the currently used system of constituencies represented by MPs.

Previously, MPs represented boroughs or counties - the boundaries of which could date back hundreds of years.

This led to the phenomena of rotten boroughs - areas where no one lived any more but still had the right to send MPs to Westminster.

The most famous of these is perhaps Old Sarum, near Salisbury, which sent two MPs voted for by around 11 people - effectively decided by the landowners.

And growing cities like Birmingham and Manchester had no MPs.

It was also not uncommon for rich landowners to control other counties and boroughs, as voting was done publicly.

After much debate, the Whig party - the forerunner to the Liberals - managed to introduce the Great Reform Act, which overwrote this system.

It wasn't completely modern, with women not able to vote, but it did extend the franchise slightly past what it used to be.

A total of 86 boroughs were removed, and 31 were reduced to sending one MP.

Some 67 constituencies were created, with areas like Manchester, Birmingham, and Leeds getting representation for the first time.

It was brought in against a background of public calls to reform the political system, and people wanting to remove parliament from the influence of rich landowners.

The Whigs had won a majority in the Commons in 1831 to introduce the changes - but had been blocked by Tories in the Lords until they finally managed to push it through with the help of King William IV.

So it is no surprise the party which introduced the reform won a huge majority against those who opposed it.

This is why it is notable that Sir Keir Starmer is forecast to get close to matching the majority of224 won in the election called after the Great Reform Act in 1832.

We've just heard from our political editor Beth Rigby, who delivered her last live analysis of the general election campaign.

Standing where it all began, six weeks ago in Downing Street, Beth said that "what is almost certain is that Keir Starmer will walk through that door as Britain's prime minister" by the time the votes are counted.

"That outcome is almost completely assured," she said.

She said that if it comes to pass, it would be a "stupendous victory" after suffering in 2019 its worst defeat since 1935,

"People thought Labour might be locked out of power for a decade - Sir Keir Starmer himself said he had a mountain to climb to bring Labour back.

"Well, tonight he stands on the cusp of becoming only the fourth ever Labour leader to win from opposition.

"The last man who did that - you will probably know it - is Tony Blair in 1997."

Beth went on to say that although the Labour leader appears on course for a big majority, how big it will be "is difficult to say" as there are "dozens of marginal seats still in the toss up".

Nonetheless, she said,"the evidence suggests it's going to be better than Boris Johnson's majority 80-seat majority in 2019 - and could go much further than that".

"After four election defeats on the bounce, this is going to feel transformative for Labour, and for the country too."

But she also warned that there "could be dozens of seats which are won by small margins and low vote shares".

"Starmer’s support might be broad, but very shallow too.

"That’s why in the campaign, you've heard Starmer talking about leading humbly, putting government back into the service of working people and putting country before party.

"Because he knows all too well that the victory could great, but the inheritance is hard, and the honeymoon with the British people could be very short indeed.

"Tomorrow then momentous, as will Friday - but only the end of the beginning for a Labour Party, perhaps into government, with a new mountain to climb."

Nigel Farage has admitted it would be a "big step back" if he doesn't win the contest in Clacton at the election.

The Reform UK leader is hoping to win his first seat in parliament and has previously said he is playing the long game, with his sights set on the next election in five years' time.

But he had conceded to needing to have a rethink if he misses out.

Asked if he would resign, he said: "I shall go for a drink and think about it."

According to YouGov's final MRP poll, Reform UK is on course to win three seats - including Clacton.

The other candidates there are:

• Matthew Bensilum, Lib Dems;
• Craig Jamieson, Climate Party;
• Tony Mack, independent;
• Natasha Osben, Greens;
• Jovan Owusu-Nepaul, Labour;
• Tasos Papanastasiou, Heritage Party;
• Andrew Pemberton, UKIP;
• Giles Watling, Conservatives.

You may recall that during the election campaign, Channel 4 News went undercover with Nigel Farage's Reform UK campaign, and filmed activists making racist and hom*ophobic comments.

Mr Farage and his party leadership claimed the report was a stitch-up of some kind, and that the broadcaster used an actor as a "plant" to damage them.

The media watchdog, Ofcom, said it received over 270 complaints about the programme, and it decided to "urgently" assess them, given that it is the election period.

The complaints were assessed under Ofcom's rules arounddue accuracy, due impartiality, and other offence rules under the Broadcasting Code.

However, those complaints have been dismissed.

The regulator said in a statement: "For all of these complaints, we have concluded that they do not raise substantive issues warranting further investigation.".

A spokesperson for Channel 4 News said: "Ofcom's decision underscores the integrity of Channel 4 News's journalism and high editorial standards.

“The programme will continue to refute any claims that we - or the production company we worked with – knew or paid the Reform UK canvasser, Mr Andrew Parker.

"We met Mr Parker for the first time at Reform UK's campaign headquarters in Clacton, and he was filmed secretly via the undercover investigation."

Reform UK has been approached for comment.

By Darren McCaffrey, political correspondent

On a slightly damp afternoon, in a summer so far marked by disappointing weather, the Conservative campaign bus pulled into a primary school in rural Hampshire today.

A smattering of Lib Dem activists (I counted five) had bothered to turn up to protest the against the prime minister.

I say protest - it was actually to gloat, and even then through mild bemusem*nt rather than anger.

They knew the game was up. It felt like everyone knew the game was up.

I mean, a campaign stop with five-year-olds the day before seemed a little pointless.

It was a day riven with resignation.

Earlier, the work and pensions secretary had essentially conceded, talking about a future Labour government, pleading to voters not to give Sir Keir Starmer a "supermajority".

The next stop was a campaign visit in a seat the Tories might actually hold.

Though that has been a feature of the entire campaign, almost exclusively we've only been in seats with Rishi Sunak that should have traditionally been ultra-Conservative.

Village pubs, farm shops, garden centres and large homes have been ubiquitous.

The last stop was one final campaign rally tonight, with maybe a hundred people.

We were told not to expect any surprises, and that in itself was hardly a surprise.

The Conservative campaign started in a very wet Downing Street, it ends in the drizzle in Southampton.

It has simply petered out.

By Matthew Thompson, political correspondent

And that, as they say, is that. The Lib Dem bus has run out of road.

It's taken us nearly 6,000 miles, over nearly six weeks, all the way from John O'Groats in Scotland to Land's End in Cornwall, and pretty much everywhere in between.

And Sir Ed Davey has thrown himself into almost every body of water we've passed on the way. I occasionally joined him. It has been by turns exhausting, thrilling, and soaking wet.

The question is, has any of it worked?

Of course, we will know for sure in just under 24 hours. But it's worth a quick reading of the runes nonetheless.

What is notable is that the Lib Dem's overall share of the national vote hasn't really moved at all. It may have ticked up a couple of percentage points since the start of the campaign, but is now hovering about where it’s been, at 11%, for the best part of a year.

How Lib Dems are playing the system

But then, that hasn't really been the point. Senior Lib Dem sources aren't remotely bothered about their national vote share. They've been running a much more targeted campaign, focussed on 80/90 seats where they came second in 2019 - almost exclusively to the Conservatives.

The Lib Dems are playing the mechanics of the voting system, which rewards votes that are concentrated, not thinly spread.

And as the campaign has gone on, they have widened the number of those seats that they think are winnable.

What would be a good night?

Understandably, nobody at Lib Dem towers will put a number on exactly how many. But I think, based on a few conversations with senior party sources, that anything above 40 seats would be considered a good night.

Up as far as 70, as a few of the recent MRP polls have suggested, would be dreamland.

In my last conversation with Sir Ed before he drove off for the last time (in a pink Cadillac, naturally) he told me he was optimistic, but nervous.

Fortunately, he doesn't have long to wait.

As we sit in the private jet Sir Keir Starmer's "changed" Labour Party has chosen as the last transport to end the campaign on, he wanders down the aisle towards us to give his reflections on the campaign and the historic heights they may reach tomorrow evening.

From the very start, Labour's strategy was to be as cautious as they could be.

Campaign events have felt controlled and sometimes even staged because they knew they were the front-runners going into this election.They've always felt it was theirs to lose.

The party went into the campaign 20+ points ahead in the polls - a remarkable lead, given that it is the governing party who decides when to call the election.

And since that first rainy day the prime minister called the election, that lead hasn't really dropped.

So they must feel vindicated, that their strategy has worked.

Sir Keir says they were always prepared: "We started the serious preparations during the Liz Truss period. I said, 'we need to be ready for an election any time'."

He said from then on he was vocal and persuaded Morgan McSweeney to head up operations and to set up one team to spearhead the election strategy.

Is 'dull' a strength?

Travelling around these past few weeks as we followed the Labour leader, I've been surprised at the public's appetite to give the Tories a kicking.

It's calmed some of Labour’s jitters over the campaign. They linger, but it’s more nervous excitement now than paralysing fear.

The critique of Labour's strategy we heard repeatedly from voters was both the policies and the politicians lack excitement, but the party are almost gleeful when you tell them their campaign has been boring.

They think being "dull" is a strength - and to be honest, they probably don't want you to remember much about this election other than their broad messages of "change".

But it is effective - because they are promising the one thing the Conservatives can't. And that's simply to not be the Tories.

The problem with balancing a message of optimism with pragmatism is one of those promises gets you into government and the other can cause you big problems once you're there.