The Buffalo Bills have made the playoffs in five consecutive seasons yet have never made it through the AFC to the Super Bowl with franchise quarterback Josh Allen. On top of that, Allen and company have only appeared in the AFC Conference Championship game once in those five tries. The Bills have watched their season end to both Houston and Cincinnati once in this five-year stretch, while being sent home by Kansas City on three different occasions. The most recent defeat came at home in the AFC Divisional Round against the eventual back-to-back Super Bowl champions.
What have the Bills done to try and get through the Kansas City roadblock? Well, general manager Brandon Beane traded the team’s first round selection to their biggest obstacle, allowing the Chiefs to draft the wide receiver with the fastest 40-yard dash time in NFL Combine history. Beane and the Bills could have just given Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid Tyreek Hill 2.0.
On top of helping the team to beat in their conference get better, the Bills themselves have a worse roster than a year ago. Allen’s top target in the passing game will be unproven rookie Keon Coleman. The 20-year-old had 50 receptions for 658 yards and 11 touchdowns at Florida State last season after catching 58 passes for 798 yards and 7 touchdowns at Michigan State two seasons ago. Coleman is a big receiver at 6-foot-4, 215 pounds, but is bound to have his rookie struggles throughout the year.
Buffalo will rely on Khalil Shakir and Curtis Samuel to be Allen’s second and third receivers. Shakir’s career high in receiving yards is only 611 while Samuel’s best season saw him haul in 851 yards back in 2020. The only saving grace for this offense right now are the two top-end tight ends and solid but underutilized running back. Both Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox have their games where they torch the middle of the field, but it takes an all-time great tight end to carry the load to a championship. Neither Knox nor Kinkaid are at the level. James Cook ran for 1,122 yards last season but the run game remains second fiddle in the Buffalo offensive scheme.
Life without Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis are going to hit this offense hard at points this season, especially in a potential playoff game. If the passing game simply cannot execute to the level Allen and the Bills have become accustomed to, this offense will get very one dimensional, very quickly. No major passing threat allows the defense to focus on stopping the run. That includes both limiting Cook out of the backfield and containing Allen’s legs out of the pocket. Additionally, the Bills have an average at best offensive line with a few guys playing different positions from a year ago.
While Matt Milano returns to the middle of the Bills defense this fall, Buffalo has lost Jordan Poyer, Tre White and Micha Hyde. This defense has become accustomed to playing without these players for weeks at a time, but not an entire season. The Bills did address a much-needed issue as they drafted a safety 60th overall in the second round. Cole Bishop will likely be the week-one starter in a defensive backfield with Taylor Rapp, Rasul Douglas and Taron Johnson. While that DB group is solid on paper, all three returning players have dealt with injuries issues in the recent past. The Bills did not do enough to get their defensive unit back to the necessary above average it needs to win it all. Not to mention Tyler Bass’ struggles with pushing the ball to the right on every big kick he attempts.
In an absolutely stacked AFC, the Bills simply do not crack the top three rosters entering 2024. The debate can even be had that Buffalo no longer has a top five top-to-bottom roster in the conference. Teams like Kansas City, Baltimore, Houston and Cincinnati all have more complete rosters than Buffalo as the team falls into the same category of rosters with Miami and Cleveland. The Bills are still going to be relevant with Allen over the next five or more years, but, with how talented and deep the AFC has become and will be over that time, the window for Allen bringing a Lombardi Trophy to Buffalo has closed.
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–2024 NFL Draft Full 32 Team-by-Team Grades
–Post-Draft 2024 NFL Power Rankings
–Way-Too-Early Post-NFL Draft 2024 AFC Playoff Predictions
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