Writing columns and having opinions can be living with a double-edged sword. It feels powerful and puffs you up when you proclaim something as certain. It can quickly split a vessel when you are wrong.
When the Orioles clinched the worst record in all of baseball in 2018, the debate began as to who the club would select with the first pick in the 2019 MLB Draft. General manager Mike Elias was hired in November 2018, and the choice represented one of his first major decisions.
There were several good candidates, such as Cal first baseman Andrew Vaughn, Vanderbilt outfielder JJ Bleday and Florida high school outfielder Riley Greene. But the debate really was about two players: Oregon State’s College World Series championship catcher Adley Rutschman and Texas high school shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., the son of former big league right-hander Bobby Witt.
For various reasons, having little to do with having actually seen either player play much, I touted that the shortstop should be the pick. In the summer of 2019, the Orioles being as good as they were in 2023 seemed like a long shot. Pick the kid who at 19 years old would take three or four years and join a finally improved Orioles team, I thought.
Boy, was I ever wrong on Witt’s ETA. He became a regular in the very early going in 2022, playing in 150 games and batting .254/.294/.428 with 20 homers and 80 RBIs. In his second full season in 2023, Witt put up some really staggering numbers: .276/.319/.495 with 28 doubles, 11 triples, 30 homers, 96 RBIs and 49 stolen bases. Those were the sexy stats that caught my eye.
A year ago, Rutschman had a very solid season on a team that won 101 games and the American League East. Rutschman’s numbers in 2023: .277/.374/.435 with 20 homers and 80 RBIs.
Rutschman got off to a slow start in 2024, hitting .275/.338/.348 with one home run in his first 17 games heading into the Orioles’ series against the Royals in Kansas City in April. At the time, Witt was hitting .321/.369/.628 with six doubles, three triples and four homers in 19 games.
I started to revisit the debate we all had back in 2019. And I decided, with the ability to have seen lots and lots of Rutschman and a good bit of Witt, that Elias had made the wrong call. I decided I had a controversial but correct take that Witt was the better player.
I never criticized Rutschman. And I very rarely go public on a column that I am going to write in a few days. However, I did that as co-host of Glenn Clark Radio on April 19. I pronounced my thesis and said I planned to write a column after that weekend series in Kansas City.
But a strange and wonderful thing happened. Rutschman helped the Orioles win two of three games against a very improved Royals club, going 6-for-15 with a homer and 5 RBIs.
Including that weekend, since I hesitated to write that column, all Rutschman has done is hit .340/.359/.620 with eight home runs. The last of those homers came in the ninth inning on May 15 against Jordan Romano, a two-run shot that delivered a delicious victory against the rival Blue Jays.
One set of numbers might explain why Rutschman is delivering such a high rate of production. It’s a bit buried in the back of his stat line. Rutschman walked six times and struck out 11 times in his first 77 plate appearances, but he has walked just three times and struck out 20 times in 103 plate appearances since then. This is a player who walked 92 times and struck out 101 times in 2023.
One could deduce that Rutschman has made a conscious effort to sell out for power. This is one very talented hitter showing a side of himself I hadn’t seen during his time in the majors.
Witt? Oh, he’s doing all right and will go on to one heck of a career. By the way, Royals owner John Sherman has no problem extending Witt on 11-year, $288.8 million contract.
As crazy as it sounds, that’s where Rutschman just might beat Witt again. Elias has a very different pay grade than yours truly, and he’ll be earning it by trying to get Rutschman’s signature on a new deal in the not-too-distant future.
Photo Credit: Kenya Allen/PressBox
